Obama's '08 campaign was nearly flawless and although McCain/Palin were a total disaster and a goddamn disgrace, it was fun to watch them jabber on. Hillary was another somewhat interesting story, but her campaign was a snooze-fest for the most part.
The best stuff in '08 was Sarah Palin related. And her inevitable return for 2012 is a big part of what's gonna make it super awesome.Think about it. Obama's approval rating will most likely be as low as it is now (44%) but probably even lower. The economy will still be pretty shitty & that's always the worst thing for an incumbent (unprecedented, massive oil spills don't help either). Obama will be totally stripped of his cool new guy appeal too, so that will even the playing field and make it a lot easier for Republicans to compete. All they'll need to be able to contend is a serious contender.
So, besides Palin, who is there?
Late last year & earlier this year, when Dick Cheney emerged from his dungeon several times to criticize Obama's foreign policy and publicly pray for another terrorist attack in the US, I hadn't counted him out as a serious possibility, but now, given his latest heart problems, I think we can definitely rule him out. Shit, he'd be due for a new LVAD pump--at the very latest--in the middle of his fourth year in office! Bottom line: The only thing Cheney should be planning for these days is his own vampire-themed funeral. You can't not have a pulse and be president; everyone knows that.
As early as last fall, I had a strong feeling that we could see a Gen. David Petraeus 2012 run, but in the aftermath of Gen. Stanley McChrystal's epic selfing in the June 22 Rolling Stone issue, Obama was able to effectively cancel out the possibility of Petraeus 2012 by giving him McChrystal's old job--Afghanistan. Two birds, one stone. You can't honorably abandon your post conducting a major war to run for president; everyone knows that.
And then there's Mitt Romney. He's got a sweet resume, but the country's already totally sick of him. And besides, he's Mormon. You can't be Mormon and be president; everyone knows that. 
Nationally-unknown Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will do better than Mitt. Like Palin, he's formed a PAC and is essentially already running, but he'll get lost in the glare of her freak show. At least he's not Mormon, gawd.
I think we'll definitely see the return of farty ol' Newt Gingrich, who, just a couple weeks ago said, "I've never been this serious" about running for president. He'd be in the fray, but only if this next guy doesn't run, which he probably should; the table is set for him to swoop in and take this thing.
Jeb Bush is the Luke Skywalker of the pack. Mark my words, he is gonna go to war with Obama when the Fox News Tea Party sideshow candidate eventually loses the GOP nomination because although a third of America will love the heck out of her dumb folksy ass, two-thirds will still think--as they do today-- that she is bat-shit crazy. As it was in 2008, leading up to 2012 the country will be perfectly divided again, wanting change again, and our options are gonna be pretty much more of the same again: The guy we've had the last four bummer years again or another Bush.. again. The problem for Obama and Democrats is that this Bush is the smart one.
And despite America's lingering "Bush fatigue" (referenced in the same 7/21 Quinnipiac poll that says Obama's approval is 44%), I think his familiar looks could work to his advantage among Americans who've never heard of him--kind of like the Schwarzenegger Effect. And it wouldn't take many national TV appearances for Jeb to show that he's not his brother.Hence, the epic battle I'm predicting if it comes down to these two well-matched opponents.
The good news for Obama is that he'll be able to say he was the first president, among many who tried, to get landmark health care reform accomplished. He'll claim he saved us from total economic ruin with the stimulus, and cleaned up Wall $treet a little bit. These are all good things that sound good that will no doubt be refuted by the elephant candidate.
Obama's accomplished more than most presidents do in a term or two in one-and-a-half years, but most Americans still agree that he kind of sucks. A lot of people think he is too intellectual, diplomatic and European for an American president. In a sense, all he's missing is a pair of George W. Bush balls.
Jeb would be a helluva formidable opponent at what could be a very vulnerable time for Obama. Jeb's got executive experience, (hurricane) crisis experience, Tea Party cred, and is popular in politically-important Florida, as well as among Hispanics, which is an exceedingly non-existent commodity among Republicans these days. 
And there are a lot of Hispanics in the U-S of A. Not to mention independents, who may be ready to swing back the other way. According to last Wednesday’s poll: "By a stunning 52 percent to 38 percent, independent voters disapprove of Obama. And by 37 to 27 percent, independents say they would vote for a Republican contender in 2012."Obama could definitely be toast this next time around. It’s gonna be a good one.
